System State
Live market regime & engine status
Current Price
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Market State
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ATR(14)
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Pre-Move Score
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◆Breakout Engine — State Context
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◇Continuation Regime
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Markov Heatmap — State 2 Transitions
Pre-Move Score History (48h)
BB Width Percentile History
Performance Analytics
Combined engine results · all closed trades
Total Trades
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Win Rate
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Avg R
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Expectancy
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Equity Curve (R-based)
Drawdown
R Distribution
MFE vs MAE Scatter
Confidence vs Outcome
Trade Intelligence
Every trade · full decision pipeline · click to drill-down
All Trades — Click any row for full breakdown
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Continuation Engine — Prediction Validation
Source: cont_candidates only · no trade_id linkage · no data leakage
⚠️
STRICT DATA SEPARATION ENFORCED
This analysis uses cont_candidates exclusively as the prediction stream.
Forward returns (return_5/10/20, mfe/mae) are computed from raw price data, with no reference to trade_id or trade outcomes.
signal_candidates is used only in the Trade Drill-Down modal for execution context.
Directional Candidates
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with resolved forward returns
Multi-Horizon Accuracy
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correct at ANY of R5 / R10 / R20
MFE-Based Accuracy
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MFE@20 exceeded adaptive threshold
Score Monotonicity
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bucket consistency across horizons
Adaptive Threshold
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regime-aware ATR multiple
Filter Pass Accuracy
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vs — when failed
Avg Adj R (best horizon)
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max of R5/R10/R20 per candidate
False Positive Rate
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adverse at ALL horizons + MFE
◈Trade Impact Analysis — Pre-Movement Context vs Outcome
LINKED BY TIMESTAMP ONLY · NO TRADE_ID · NO LEAKAGE
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◈Prediction Engine Verdict
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Resolved Candidates — Forward Returns (cont_candidates · no trade linkage)
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Breakout Engine MARKOV
Squeeze compression → expansion · Spec v4
Trades (Breakout)
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Win Rate
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Avg Confidence
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Avg MFE
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◈ Per-Event Expansion Rate
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Breakout Type × Session
win% · reach = MFE touched · verdict on avg R, gated by n≥15 · pre-July accumulation
Breakout Trades — Lifecycle
per closed trade · range×ATR / body from entry candle · rr_achieved blended on partials · RSI captured on recent trades
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Signal Candidates Log
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Continuation Engine TREND PULLBACK
Split-window trend detection · v2.3
Candidates Evaluated
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Filters Passed
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Ideal Pullbacks
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Current Regime
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Continuation Type × Session
true_r / true_mfe_r · reach = MFE touched · verdict gated n≥15 · STRUCTURE killed (excluded) · pre-July accumulation
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Continuation Trades — Lifecycle
per closed trade · live types only · true_r / true_mfe_r · RSI captured from Jun 9
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Recent Continuation Candidates
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Analog Gate — Deterministic Continuation Verdicts
Shadow-only. Reads cont_candidates (triggered). Distributional, not predictive — per-bucket R20 SD ~3.2-3.9R.
Tier Distribution
Buckets (live vs calibrated pool)
Tier vs Outcome — indicative; candidate↔trade link is fuzzy (prediction stream is not trade-linked)
Recent Verdicts
Gate Health
Breakout Gate — Deterministic Verdicts (Shadow)
Log-only. Buckets frozen sql_v0_approx (simple-avg RSI). Calibration is forward-only; historical backfill is in-sample.
Gate Buckets — historical R
Forward Calibration — verdict vs realized
Recent Stamped Signals
EMA-Cross Shadow Observer
Shadow only · no execution · cross direction (bull→long, bear→short) · SL 1.5×ATR · 18-bar time exit
Shadow Trades — full lifecycle
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Breakout-Reversal Paper Engine
Paper · own table · breakout-side runner · BOS opposing established EMA trend · SL 1×ATR · 20-bar time exit · ride vs fade
Reversal Trades — full lifecycle
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Liquidity Trap Observer
Shadow only · no execution · LONG failed-breakdown reclaim · EMA-bull filter (ema20>ema50) · SL ~0.9×ATR below sweep · 24-bar hold, no TP
Trap Trades — full lifecycle
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Ignition Reversal Shadow
Shadow only · no execution · explosive V-reversal candle (range≥2×ATR, body≥0.5, base≥1.5×ATR beyond EMA50) · entry at ignition close · SL 1.5×ATR · 20-bar time exit
Session × Direction Allow List
shadow hypothesis · in-sample (full resolved KEEP history) · forward-validate before enforcing · verdict on avg R, gated by n≥15 · reach = MFE touched
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Ignition Fires — full lifecycle
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H4 Breakout Engine — LONG (Shadow)
H4-native · fresh 20-bar-high break · with H4 EMA50 trend · SL 1.5×ATR / TP 2.5×ATR · 24-bar exit · LOW-vol shadow-gated · in-sample backfill; forward fires are the real gate.
Per-Regime Calibration
RSI Bands — gated (MID/HIGH), RSI<70 is the edge, 70+ is the dead zone
Recent Signals
S/R Level Registry
Registry only · no execution · D1 fractals (2L/2R, +3d confirm) · break = H4 close ±0.25×ATR · retest window 12×H4 · expiry 60d · maintained hourly :07 by sr_levels_maintain.py
Price Ladder — active levels
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Retest Context Hypotheses — LONG backfill · post-hoc · forward-validate before any gate
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Active Levels
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Shadow Trades — break-retest flips · shadow only · no execution · entry level±0.3×ATR · SL 1.0×ATR · TP 2R · 30×H4 timeout · gate: 20 LONG fires before enforcement talk
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Level Lifecycle — indicators at break / retest
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Engine Comparison
Breakout vs Continuation · performance & conditions
◆Breakout
◇Continuation
Outcome Comparison
Average R by Engine
Session Performance
Shadow Engines
Simulated R · no stops · synthetic exit policies · not comparable to live realized R
System Log
Last 100 events · audit trail
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